It’s easy to feel over-fatigued from award shows right now. They all sort of bump into one another at the same time. Though, given that the Oscars dropped the ball, skipping a handful of solid releases and performances, and that the Grammys still feel like, “one giant industry jerk-off where the ones who pushed the most quantity are rewarded for quality,” as Alex Young put it so eloquently last year, who in their right mind cares?
Well, America does. If Twitter is any indication, millions of people still tune in and actually gripe about the wins and losses; you do recall the great Arcade Fire meme of 2011, right? What’s more, with a handful of unique performances, specifically those oddball collaborations this year (e.g. Foo Fighters and Deadmau5; Beach Boys and Maroon 5 and Foster the People), there admittedly is somewhat of a reason to tune in, even if we all know Adele will sweep.
Still, there are some categories that flirt with the mind: Will Wilco win over Foo Fighters for Best Rock Album? Could Bon Iver actually nab the Best New Artist win from Skrillex? Does Kanye West need Jay-Z to win another Grammy? Do the Grammys still love Gaga?
On paper, none of these nominations tend to mean anything to us, but if Arcade Fire’s win last year is any consolation, then some of these younger, budding artists could be in the running to nab a few million more fans. Wouldn’t it be just wonderful to hear several more Americans dumbfounded at another indie act? Aren’t you jumping for joy at the likelihood of another dozen more snide editorials within our circle laughing at them? Wouldn’t that just be dandy?
We’ll see come Sunday. Personally, I’m amped to see Brian Wilson’s face when they transition from “Good Vibrations” into “Moves Like Jagger” – that is, if the Grammys heed Satan’s advice.
Anywho, check out who we think will win. If you recall, we’ve been right on the money in the past. Not.
-Michael Roffman
President/Editor-in-Chief
Album of the Year
Who Will Win: Adele – 21
Who Should Win: Adele – 21
What CoS Says: Anyone who hasn’t already figured out why Adele’s 21 will win Album of the Year needs to steer clear of sharp objects and wear a safety helmet at all times. As the best-selling album since 2004, 21 was the single greatest pop album of the entire year, fulfilling every single requirement necessary to be deemed a true crossover hit. Singles, specifically “Rolling in the Deep” and “Someone Like You”, played literally around the clock worldwide? Check. Said tracks featured in ad campaigns/commercials? Check. A record-setting 19 weeks at No.1? Check. Your mother asking for it for her birthday/Mother’s Day? Awkward check. Artistically speaking, the album ached with a romantic forlorn that was truly universal, delivered in a triumphant and grandiose fashion that appealed to the sensibilities of both young and old, lame and hip. No better album could have meant as much to the whole wide world. -Chris Coplan
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Before we continue, let’s attempt to clear up one of the most confusing questions in all of music: the difference between Song of the Year and Record of the Year. According to Slate, Song of the Year awards the songwriter for a song released, while Record of the Year rewards a song’s performance and production.
Song of the Year
Who Will Win: Adele – “Rolling in the Deep”
Who Should Win: Bon Iver – “Holocene”
What CoS Says: History points out that the majority of artists who are both songwriters and performers tend to win both Song and Record of the Year, which means Adele is floating along nicely here. Having said that, the decision should be split this year, given that the chart-topping juggernaut is already likely to win Album of the Year and Record of the Year, as well. But, this isn’t a race in kindergarten, so that sort of thinking goes out the window in these professional circles of sorts. It’s just unfortunate that such a rich, multi-layered, and intricate piece as “Holocene”, which has only topped dozens of critics’ lists for 2011, will get swept aside, which is what’s essentially being done here. Then again, it’s not like Justin Vernon cares anyhow. -Michael Roffman
Record of the Year
Who Will Win: Adele – “Rolling in the Deep”
Who Should Win: Adele – “Rolling in the Deep”
What CoS Says: Adele hits all the right notes literally and metaphorically with “Rolling in the Deep”, which is why she should and will win Record of the Year. Perhaps the least self-explanatory category, Record of the Year goes to a track’s producers and performers, while Song of the Year is awarded to a track’s songwriter. The distinction might be small, but it’s worth noting. Even though Adele is up for Song of the Year, it’s unlikely that the committee will pick her as the best songwriter over “All of the Lights”’ all-star lineup of Kanye West, Rihanna, Fergie, and Kid Cudi. Though Adele won Best New Artist and Best Pop Vocal Performance in 2009, she lost the category in question to Robert Plant and Alison Krauss (something the Grammy Awards have a history of doing). This time around, she and her team deserve credit for a masterfully arranged song. From the skeletal strums opening “Rolling in the Deep” to the Motown handclaps and tambourines, Adele’s magnificent husk ties it all together. -Harley Brown
Best Rock Album
Who Will Win: Foo Fighters – Wasting Light
Who Should Win: Foo Fighters – Wasting Light
What CoS Says: Foo Fighters’ Wasting Light will win Best Rock Album for a couple of reasons, the first of which is that the stats don’t lie. Dave Grohl and his assorted cohorts have picked up this particular prize more than any other artist, dating back to the award’s creation in 1995, a year that proved the Rolling Stones were still kind of relevant when they won for Voodoo Lounge. The only times the Fighters have been nominated here and lost were to John Fogerty’s Blue Moon Swamp (The Colour and the Shape, ’98) and U2’s How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (In Your Honor, ’06). Neither of those artists are nominated this year. Be wary of dark horse Jeff Beck, though, because occasionally the Grammys will skew old (e.g. Herbie Hancock and Steely Dan’s Best Album wins). While Wilco is also a likely candidate, we’re putting our money on the Foo for the win. We’ve stated our reasons previously, too. -Justin Gerber
Best Rap Album
Who Will Win: Kanye West – My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy
Who Should Win: Kanye West – My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy
What CoS Says: Simply put, My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy should win Best Rap Album because it’s perfect. Really, though: Fantasy received 94/100 points on Metacritic, which collated reviews from nearly 50 sources. The Los Angeles Times’ Ann Powers said it best when she called West’s fifth LP, “Picasso-like, fulfilling the Cubist mandate of rearranging form, texture, color and space to suggest new ways of viewing things.” There are few albums, rap or otherwise, that can claim such grand ambitions. It would be a notable snub if the committee passed over West’s arguably best work to date, especially since it awarded Best Rap Album to West’s discography (with the notable exception of 2008’s 808s and Heartbreak, which apparently still makes ‘Ye bitter). But what of his collaboration with Jay-Z, Watch the Throne, which is also up for Best Rap Album? Jay may be “the president of the world,” but he doesn’t hold a candle to being on God’s iPod. -Harley Brown
Best Alternative Album
Who Will Win: Bon Iver – Bon Iver
Who Should Win: Bon Iver – Bon Iver
What CoS Says: The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inducted The Sex Pistols in 2006, despite the band rejecting the honor. I don’t know about you, but when I think of our generation’s British punk rockers, I think of Bon Iver. Yes, despite Justin Vernon’s criticisms of the Grammys, as well as the band’s lack of being British and punk rocking, I wouldn’t count them out in this category. Bon Iver’s created the most buzz of the five nominees, more so than the mighty Radiohead and the decidedly less mighty Death Cab for Cutie. If there’s any dark horse in this category, bet on My Morning Jacket, but otherwise, you’ll hear “Bon Iver” mentioned two times when the winner is announced. Given that they’ll likely be swept by Adele in other categories, we’d say this win would be much deserved. -Justin Gerber
Best Pop Solo Performance
Who Will Win: Bruno Mars – “Grenade”
Who Should Win: Lady Gaga – “Yoü And I”
What CoS Says: The battle for Best Pop Solo Performance really breaks down into a war over America’s preferred musical aesthetic. The eventual winner, Bruno Mars, represents America’s love for the bad-boy-with-a-heart-of-gold archetype; he’s got slicked back hair, brooding good looks, leather jackets galore, and he even beat a drug rap. But his track “Grenade” was the definition of sappy ode, complete with promises to maim and murder himself all in the name of love. Those two dichotomous elements make for the perfect pop performance, as if James Dean had somehow been able to mate with a slightly less talented Justin Timberlake and that offspring sang his heart out in one of this year’s few truly memorable ballads.
On the opposing end of the pop star spectrum, Lady Gaga represents our quiet obsession with the wacky, otherworldly pop star with the skin of a chameleon. Gaga’s piano-powered “Yoü And I” should be the one to take home the Grammy for a couple of key reasons. Besides the fact that it’s a much more moving, cutesy exploration of the bond between two people, “Yoü And I” is way more weird, sounding as if it were a freaky amalgamation between Mariah Carey and Bob Dylan. As much as America loves its tales of bad boys gone good, a more refreshing tale is that of someone letting their freak flag fly high and inspiring other weirdos to follow suit. Oh, and umlauts are the illest. -Chris Coplan
Best Rap Song
Who Will Win: Kanye West & Jay-Z – “Otis”
Who Should Win: Kanye West & Jay-Z – “Otis”
What CoS Says: Kanye West will likely win this category, so it’s really a matter of who he’ll win it with. I’m leaning towards his Watch the Throne partner, Jay-Z, a.k.a. Blue Ivy’s Pops, for their big-deal collabo “Otis”. True to life, the one thing getting in Kanye’s way is Kanye himself, for “All of the Lights”. It’s ‘Ye and Hova’s number one competition. As for the other nominees, I don’t know if the Grammys are ready to hand out an award to Chris Brown for reasons that have been mentioned ad nauseum, and Dr. Dre’s “I Need a Doctor” didn’t live up to the Eminem-assisted hype last year. Maybe the 22nd century’s release of Detox will give him back some much needed cred.
And what can I say? “Otis” pays homage to the great Otis Redding, features what may be West at his most assured (“I made ‘Jesus Walk’ so I’m never going to hell”), and is all around a better song than the other nominees (although, “All of the Lights” is so close). Say what you will about West offscreen, but the man can produce the hell out of a track. But, even in the unlikely event that someone else wins, Lord, please let Mr. West accept the things he can’t change and let us pray that all of his pain be champagne. -Justin Gerber
Best Rock Song
Who Will Win: Mumford & Sons – “Sigh No More”
Who Should Win: Radiohead – “Lotus Flower”
What CoS Says: Mumford & Sons will win Best Rock Song because “The Cave” has become a juggernaut impossible for the nebulous awards committee to ignore for the second year in a row. For the 53rd Grammy Awards, the committee passed over “Little Lion Man” off Sigh No More in favor of Neil Young’s “Angry World” in the same category, and jazz multi-instrumentalist Esperanza Spalding trumped both Mumfordmania and Bieber Fiever by winning Best New Artist, so Mumford & Sons are due some recognition outside the quantitative realm of record sales, which are impressive in an of themselves. Last October, Mumford & Sons became the first independent artist to sell over one million albums digitally, not to mention that their debut is the second most downloaded album after fellow Grammy nominee Adele. The National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences will most likely pick Mumford & Sons to honor the “listening habits of the general population,” which they have been accused of ignoring, especially for this year’s Awards.
Radiohead has claimed Best Alternative Music Album about once every three years—a prize that OK Computer, Kid A, and In Rainbows well deserve—but winning in only one category pigeonholes the band’s consistent innovation. The King of Limbs is arguably Radiohead’s least accessible album, released to mixed reviews and failing to top year-end lists across the board. Though the album wasn’t universally acclaimed, “Lotus Flower” somehow managed to find its way into the mainstream, uniting the critics and the fans with its complex rhythms and Thom Yorke’s weird yet somehow endearing version of the robot. “Lotus Flower”’s nomination for Best Rock Song is the last chance, at least in an official capacity, for Radiohead to achieve recognition for an album that pushes the group’s limits, in large part by perplexing its ardent fan base. Plus, the song (and dance) provokes thought and warrants repeated listens in a way that “The Cave”, with its rampaging punk-folk and blatant lyrics, does not. -Harley Brown
Best New Artist
Who Will Win: Skrillex
Who Should Win: Bon Iver
What CoS Says: When he takes this award, Skrillex is going to cause a lot of debate (to be fair, he already has). Still, with the Academy constantly trying to shrug off their image as stuffy, old music ignoramuses, Skrillex may be their dark, dirty, half-shaved man. He’s responsible for finally getting dubstep to crossover in America, love it (or him) or hate it (or him). Furthermore, he’s the first DJ ever to be nominated in the category. He’s a twofer, a young-gun at the forefront of an exploding genre and a musician without a guitar or piano. Besides, look at his competition: The only rap act ever to win was Arrested Development in 1993 (Kanye lost to Maroon 5), so the generally “safe” J. Cole and “too vulgar for BET” Nicki Minaj seem unlikely; The Band Perry. . . I’m sorry, who? If they’re looking to attune themselves to “real” listeners, they’re not going to award another country-pop act. Bon Iver presents the only real threat, but the chance to bring an electronic artist, especially one currently so ubiquitous, into the echelon of Grammy winners will be hard to pass up.
Why Bon Iver probably won’t win is easy, given Justin Vernon’s recent comments and proverbial middle fingers. Then again, maybe that’s exactly why they should win. With Vernon’s distinctly anti-“mainstream” sentiments, he’s the consummate modern indie artist. Yet he fronts a band which outsold his perhaps more familiar contemporaries in its first week, while topping megastars like Lady Gaga and Adele. He helped craft Kanye West’s Dark Twisted opus, contributed to the Twilight: New Moon soundtrack with St. Vincent, worked alongside James Blake, and was called “a fucking genius” by Rick freakin’ Ross. Hell, even Skrillex thinks Bon Iver should take this one home. When you think about it, this could be everything the Academy ever wanted. What better way to prove that you’re still relevant, or still “hip,” then by giving the Best New Artist award to a group who couldn’t give a damn what you think? Of course, Bon Iver is not just that; they’re an unparalleled act overflowing with talent and bleeding beauty. They’re perfect for this in so many ways, and I for one would love to see the shocker of a win – and acceptance speech. -Ben Kaye
